Iran and negotiations: Poison or Cure?

Iran and negotiations: Poison or Cure?

Are negotiations considered poison or cure for Iran’s regime

Analysis by PMOI/MEK

Iran, May 19, 2019 - In an attempt to calm the fears of a potential war with U.S. forces, Iran regime supreme leader Ali Khamenei on May 14 told his concerned cronies: “There isn’t going to be any war and negotiations are poison.”

But his attempt to soothe this fear was not effective and less than a day after his comments, signs of engaging in talks with the U.S. surfaced from both factions. This comes at a time when Khamenei’s faction continues to attack the rival faction for seeking ways to succumb to U.S. demands.

Just a day after Khamenei said ‘Negotiation is poison’, voices were heard from both factions reiterating the need for talks and even accepting the international terms and conditions showing dispersion among the ruling elite.

Succumb to US demands

Comments by Hermidas Bavand, a former official of the regime’s foreign affairs ministry, published in Arman daily a day after Khamenei’s speech, reiterated the need for giving concessions to open the path for a new round of negotiations.

“Tehran must free some of the prisoners [the West is calling for] to neutralize Washington’s human rights excuse,” Bavand said. “Iran must engage in a series of domestic and foreign measures. Domestically, the country’s interests dictate that even preemptively speaking, Iran must neutralize the image that Washington has been portraying of Iran on the issue of human rights and political prisoners. And then bring up the subject of unconditional negotiations,” Arman daily affiliated to Rouhani faction reported on May 15.

Giving more chance to diplomacy

The Iranian Diplomacy website close to Rouhani’s faction published an article on May 14 titled “To give more chance to diplomacy” saying, in a logical and calculated measure, Tehran must assign new, balanced and moderate figures in order to undermine the clout of extreme elements of the US administration team.

“Meanwhile, maintaining a strategic dialogue with Europe and enlightening them of the effects of possible dangers that could stem from the cooperation between both sides of the Atlantic would become necessary. Of course, we must try to place the burden of responsibilities and prices they have to pay on Europe’s shoulder,” the website wrote.

Opening the path to dialogue

Esmael Kosari, from the hardline faction associated with Khamenei, defined negotiations as something that does not happen only once and it will force itself over and over again.

“If the negotiations were only once, we could sit around the table for the second time. However, unless the rival side engages in a series of measures to prove to us their actions are sincere and flawless, then we could assess the situation and decide upon that,” the Tadbir & Omid website associated to the hardline faction of the regime wrote on May 15.

Kamal Kharrazi, a former minister of foreign affairs and one of Khamenei’s key allies, currently chairs the regime’s Foreign Affairs Strategic Council. In an interview with the French Express publication, he showed signs of willingness on the part of the hardliners for negotiations with the U.S.

Commenting on a question citing [US President] Donald Trump saying for dialogue we have a positive approach, he said: “The first step is for the U.S to come back to the negotiating table,” according to the Daneshjoo website affiliated to the Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) Basij militias.

Amirali Abolfath, one of the key elements of the Rouhani faction, sought an attempt by the Europeans to tie the knot between the regime and the U.S.

“Europe’s possible attempt to engage Iran and the Americans into dialogue was started years ago. In other words, we can say that other than the first couple of years that the Islamic Republic was taking shape, Europe has always advanced this policy of trying to engage Iran and America into some form of conciliation and understanding,” the Entekhab website, associated to Iran’s so-called reformist faction, wrote on May 15.

The “Looking East” mirage

In an attempt to free himself of the stalemate the theocratic system is stuck in relation to the West and Europe, Khamenei sought a policy of looking toward East, especially Russia and China. Different media and elements of his faction repeated his words wherever possible.

However, constant U.S. pressures and in a situation that according to Fararoo website, “Europe was kicking the ball left and right,” and despite Khamenei’s insistence that we can’t expect much from Europe, there is a growing concern among ruling factions. They believe that in order to survive and put this crisis behind, looking toward Europe is the only hope. At the end of the day, we must even accept the disgrace and the shame of negotiating with the U.S., some regime elements believe.

Khamenei’s insistence in shying away from foreign support for solving his regime’s crises means that in order to overcome these problems, especially the increasing pressures from the US, the country must rely on domestic capacities.

However, the bogus nature of such an approach is so utterly obvious that while his words were still in the air, and contrary to his claims, his cronies and state-run media are proscribing engagement with Europe and the U.S.

The persistence by state-run media and element of the regime to negotiate with the U.S. and keep relations alive with Europe stems from the fact that there are no domestic capacities to tackle the existing political, social and economic dead ends. And the theocratic system has none of those claimed domestic capacities to rely on to circle the ever-growing difficulties. Not to mention that internally the regime is facing a growing discontent and scattered uprisings by the frustrated and angry people, and a viable and active dissident movement that is organizing daily protests and rallies around the country is challenging the entire system.

Endless crisis

The contrast between the idea promoted by media and elements of the regime from that of the supreme leader, with no doubt, is rooted in the endless crisis entangling the entire system with no solution in sight. The reality is that before Khamenei and ruling elite carry the shame of dialogue or the danger of confronting the West and the international community, they are facing a more imminent and major crisis at home in a faceoff between the people and the system in its entirety.

The real concern that shakes the system is not so much from the outside, but from inside with the people and “Resistance Units” – associated to the Iranian opposition group People's Mojahedin Organization of Iran (PMOI/MEK) – in the streets of Tehran and other major cities.

Therefore, under the current circumstances, negotiations for the regime, as spelled out by Khamenei himself, are a poison that would enter its body and rapidly overwhelm the entire system, driving it to a hasty demise. 

Saudi Deputy Defense Minister: Iran behind terrorist attack on Saudi oil facility

Saudi Deputy Defense Minister: Iran behind terrorist attack on Saudi oil facility

Saudi Deputy Defense Minister Khalid Ben Salman

Reported by PMOI/MEK

May 18, 2019 - The Iranian regime ordered the drone attacks on two Saudi oil installations, said Saudi Arabia Deputy Defense Minister Khalid Bin Salman said on Thursday.

“The order of this terrorist attack came from Iran and the Houthis were merely the executers,” Khalid Bin Salman said.

The Houthis are merely tools in the hands of the Iranian regime for enforcing their expansionist policies.

Also discussing the drone attack, Saudi Minister of State for Foreign Affairs Adel Al-Jubeir said Yemeni Houthis are an indivisible part of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and are subject to the IRGC’s orders.

In a series of tweets, Al-Jubeir said the Houthis showed they are implementing Iran’s agenda “by sacrificing the need of the Yemeni people for the benefit of Iran’s regime”.

The Houthi militias on Tuesday claimed responsibility for twin drone strikes on Saudi’s main East-West oil pipeline, according to the Saudi Gazette. The regime in Iran has repeatedly threatened to close the vital conduit for global oil supplies in case of a military confrontation with the United States.

Saudi officials say that the attacks were carried out with a number of drones packed with explosives that targeted an area between two oil pump stations belonging to the Aramco Company. The Saudis called these attacks acts of terrorism.

Also, in an official letter to the United Nations Security Council, Abdullah Al Moallemi, Saudi Arabia’s Permanent Envoy to the UN, wrote that the Houthi militants used seven drones to attack the oil facilities.

The Al Arabiya network reported that Saudi and United Arab Emirates envoys to the UN wrote a joint letter to the UN Security Council and UN Secretary General Antonio Gutierrez, providing details of the sabotage attacks targeting four oil tankers off the UAE coast. 

Iran: Fear of war and the regime’s gradual disintegration

Iran: Fear of war and the regime’s gradual disintegration

Chief Commander of IRGC Hossein Salami

Analysis by PMOI/MEK

Iran, May 17, 2019 - Last Sunday, the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps’ (IRGC) newly appointed chief went to the regime’s Majlis (parliament) to reassure the horrified members that there will not be war.

Regardless of future developments, the current situation in Iran shows very well how hollow and vulnerable the “revolutionary” power structure of the theocracy has become.

Dispatching U.S. battleships to the Persian Gulf on the one hand and growing popular discontent and economic misery on the other has created an avalanche of desires for negotiations on both sides of the political aisle inside the Iranian regime.

Naghavi Hosseini, one of Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s minions in the Majlis’ National Security and Foreign Policy Commission, while pretending to have an anti-U.S. stance, alluded to negotiations with the “Great Satan.”

“At the end of the day, we don’t know what approach they want to implement and how they want to solve these paradoxes? Recently, we witnessed them backing off from their past positions and they have even announced that they will forgo past conditions and are ready to negotiate,” he said.

According to the Jomhuri Eslami newspaper, Iran’s ambassador to the United Nations also indicated Tehran’s willingness to negotiate with the U.S.

“Iran’s permanent ambassador the U.N. responded to Trump’s proposal for negotiations saying: ‘The U.S. President needs to first say why he left the negotiating table. What are the guarantees that he doesn’t break his promise again in the future talks with Iran?’”

Heshmatollah Falahatpisheh, chair of the Majlis Security Commission, praised Trump’s recent comments about negotiations and the phone number provided to Switzerland for Iran.

“The U.S. President wants to decrease tensions and to prevent military rhetoric between Iran and America,” he said.

Zahra Saiidy, the spokesperson for the Economy Commission, expressed her fears of the popular protests and warned the government to do its best to diffuse discontent among ordinary Iranians.

Mostafa Kavakebian, another Majlis member, said: “If we don’t want to bow down before bullies, we need to bow before the people. It means God forbid, the people should hear of no more issues such as abuse of power and corruption.”

Majlis members are panicking under domestic and U.S. pressure, showing signs of a desire to negotiate with the U.S., while Khamenei has already said there will not be any war or negotiations with the U.S.

In a meeting with military personnel, he reiterated this position on May 14.

One important point to note is how Iranian officials have backed down from the hardline positions in tandem with the U.S. military buildup and the gradual increase of sanctions.

This has been a pattern throughout the regime’s history, to concede when there are enough resolve and pressure from adversaries.

Ahmad Alamolhoda, Khamenei’s representative in the northeast city of Mashhad, clearly expressed the ruling mullahs’ actual source of fear in his Friday prayers last week.

“These people who are moving into battle formation have done this with people they hope to raise inside of Iran against the [Islamic] revolution,” he said. “They are counting on this [young] generation that is entering the field these days.”

Iran MP admits active role of opposition PMOI/MEK among the public

Iran MP admits active role of opposition PMOI/MEK among the public

Iranian regime Majlis (parliament)

Analysis by PMOI/MEK

Iran: May 15, 2019 – Elias Hazrati, a member of the Iranian regime’s Majlis (parliament), took to the podium in an open session of the parliament on Tuesday to discuss the current crisis that has engulfed the entire regime.

“The system is facing the toughest sanctions’ regime and the most condense economic blockade the country has faced during the past decade,” Hazrati said.

Under the slogan of the “people losing their trust” and “hopeless people”, Hazrati warned regime officials that the status quo will lead to a nationwide uprising.

“We are in the middle of a horrific psychological war. The war has begun. The aim is to destroy the people’s trust in the state,” the Majlis member warned. He said the target of this “psychological war” is creating a wedge between the people and the system.

In another segment of his comments, Hazrati revealed his fears of the increase of social interests and attraction toward the Iranian opposition group People's Mojahedin Organization of Iran (PMOI/MEK) as the opposite to the social hatred and disgust of the people toward the regime.

“The enemy is using all its assets to discredit the state. With fake news and exaggeration tactics, 1,200 PMOI/MEK members are sitting and planning against [paramilitary] Hezbollah [militants], against both the reformists and principalists, the defenders of the state and the extremists and the fanatics. And inside the system, we are promoting this great war without doing anything to counter it,” Hazrati added.

He warned different factions of the regime saying that they don’t have a correct perception of the situation.

“You will realize the gravity of the situation when the people are smashed under the wheels of the problems,” he said, admitting the explosive statues of the society and the regime’s inability to tackle that.

“We don’t have any understanding of the fact that people are being smashed under the wheels of high costs of living, inflation, unemployment, and there is chaos overwhelming the Bazaar and the economy, while we are engaged in our own infightings and pay no attention to the outside reality.”

Iran: The economic free fall and the deadly inflation tsunami

Iran: The economic free fall and the deadly inflation tsunami

The economic free fall and the deadly inflation tsunami

Analysis by PMOI/MEK

May 14, 2019 - On May 4, the state-run newspaper Asr-e Iran wrote about the significant increase in prices of consumer goods.

“Now, we are facing an unrestrained economic instability and fear about the future. Prices are almost unimaginable. It appears that all of it is a horrifying nightmare and will end when you wake up. However, we all know that what is described as a nightmare is the hard truth,” the piece reads in part.

A few days earlier on May Day, Eghtesasd 24, an Iranian state-run website specialized in economic news, wrote about the current economic misery worker families face.

“The inflation that especially in the past two years has bent the back of working-class families isn’t limited to increases in red meat prices. Prices of fruit, vegetables and especially products like onions and potatoes that are the main ingredient of the daily food of working-class families have increased to such an extent that you can safely say that workers and their families are craving for fruits for a long time,” the article reads.

On May 6, state-run Vatan Emrooz newspaper, wrote: “The cost of food is far higher than in other countries. Right now, no more 42,000 rial U.S. currency is dedicated to importing beans and its cost has increased by 100 percent. Special currency for importing butter and meat are also dropped, the government hasn’t presented an alternative and subsidies are not provided for the people either.”

In Iran, U.S. dollars are bought and sold at two rates: the official rate is set by the state and the free market rate that changes based on on-the-ground market conditions.

While the state-set rate for one U.S. dollar is set at 42,000 Iranian rials, the free market price is around 150,000 rials.

The Iranian regime should be providing US dollars at state-set prices for special purposes such as importing raw materials for factories or essential consumer goods and thus effectively controlling inflation and domestic prices.

However, what happens, in reality, is an outrageous story of blatant corruption, nepotism, and kleptocracy where US dollars at state-set prices are handed out to the well-connected elite who make huge profits at the expense of ordinary Iranians.

On May 6, the Tabnak website published an article titled, “Brokers profited 200 thousand billion tomans from ‘Jahangiri’s currency’.” A toman is equal to 10 rials.

Eshaq Jahangiri, Iran’s First Vice President, famously set and announced the current official exchange rate for the U.S. dollar, so, in current Persian parlance, “Jahangiri’s currency” means USDs at the 42,000 rial rate.

Considering that calculated with the free market rate, 200 thousand billion tomans roughly equal more than $13 billion.

Tabnak writes: “In [the Persian] year 2018-2019, $20 billion have been given to different institutions at the [state-set] rate of 42,000 rials. If you calculate the price at the free market rate, the difference is about 200 thousand billion tomans. That’s while the damage of last month’s huge flood has been calculated at 35 thousand billion tomans.”

Keyhan newspaper, the mouthpiece of Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s, writes: “A few weeks after the JCPOA was implemented, Mohammad Bagher Nobakht [then-spokesperson for the Iranian government] announced that $100 billion Iranian frozen money has been released. Although, government officials later and in a questionable move very much decreased the amount of this money, the main question remains about where this huge amount has been spent that no government official has said anything about it?”

In another admission about the blatant corruption in the Islamic Republic and how just a tiny portion of Iran’s none-oil export revenue is returned to the country, state-run news agency ISNA wrote a damning report on March 4.

“From the $40 billion of exports that the country had in the 11 months of this year, only $8 billion returned to the country.”

Meanwhile, prices of the most basic food products are skyrocketing.

The IRNA news agency reported on May 1 that after a 459.5 percent increase in its prices, onions are the record holder among food products.

AP: U.S. official says initial assessment shows Iran’s role in oil tanker attack

AP: U.S. official says initial assessment shows Iran’s role in oil tanker attack

Fingers are pointing at Iran and Iran-backed proxies in the recent attack targeting four oil tankers off the UAE coast

Analysis by PMOI/MEK

May 14, 2019 - The Associated Press is reporting a U.S. official speaking on the condition of anonymity says initial assessments by an American military team shows Iran’s regime and/or Tehran-backed proxy forces used explosives to create holes in four oil tankers off the coast of the United Arab Emirates.

Each oil tanker has a hole about 1.5 to three meters wide at water or sub-water level. The American team has reached a conclusion that the holes were caused by explosives.

The UAE has asked for U.S. assistance in investigating this case of sabotage, according to AP. [Persian] Gulf officials are describing this development as a sabotage attack.

The U.S. has warned ships that Iran or its proxy forces could target shipping lines in this area and Washington has dispatched bombers, warplanes, and warships to the region.

CBS is also citing U.S. investigators placing the blame for this attack on the Iranian regime or Tehran-backed proxy groups. Four ships belonging to U.S. allies were targeted off the coast of the United Arab Emirates.

AP has also reported that U.S. President Donald Trump on Monday warned Iran that any measures resembling an attack will receive a strong response. When asked about the sabotage attacks, Trump said, “We’ll see what happens with Iran. If they do anything it will be a very bad mistake. I’m hearing little stories about Iran. If they do anything, they will suffer greatly. We’ll see what happens… We'll see what happens. It's going to be a bad problem for Iran if something happens. They're not going to be happy... They know what I mean."

It is worth noting that Iran’s Revolutionary Guards (IRGC), known to fund, arm and train proxy forces across the region, has been designated by the U.S. State Department as a “Foreign Terrorist Organization” (FTO).

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The Gulf Cooperation Council condemned the sabotage operations carried out against four commercial ships near United Arab Emirates’ waters.

GCC Secretary-General Abdullatif bin Rashid Al Zayani issued a statement saying this issue is escalating tensions and clashes in the region and threatening people’s interests.

Bahrain is also strongly condemning the sabotage operations against the four ships in the UAE’s Port

Fujairah, describing the measure as a terrorist attack threatening local maritime safety and security. Bahrain supports all measures adopted by the UAE to maintain its security and interests, and fully stands alongside this nation, the statement adds. The international community must live up to its responsibilities in regards to preserving maritime safety and security and confronting any threats endangering international peace and security.

The sabotage attacks against UAE ships took place hours after Iranian and Lebanese outlets were posting fake news reports of explosions near the UAE port, according to the Associated Press.

The UAE Foreign Ministry issued a statement on Sunday indicating four commercial ships near the waters of this country were the targets of sabotage operations. This incident left no casualties.

Sabotage against commercial ships and the threat of employees’ lives being lost is considered a dangerous development, according to the UAE Foreign Ministry statement. The UAE has not provided more details of this incident and is emphasizing investigations with the cooperation of international authorities are ongoing in this regard.

The Saudi Foreign Ministry issued a statement on Monday indicating two of its oil tankers were also damaged in Sunday’s attack.

On Sunday morning, Fujairah officials were denying reports of explosions in the local port. Media outlets associated with the mullahs’ regime in Iran were citing the Lebanon-based al-Mayadeen media outlet reporting news of explosions targeting seven oil tankers in Port Fujairah.

The UAE Foreign Ministry issued a statement declaring the international community must rise to its responsibility of preventing efforts seeking to damage shipping lines. The UAE government emphasized the sabotage attack threatens global peace and security.

GCC, Bahrain condemn sabotage attacks on commercial ships in the UAE

GCC, Bahrain condemn sabotage attacks on commercial ships in the UAE

Tensions are building up in the region and fingers are pointing at the regime in Iran

Reported by PMOI/MEK

UAE, May 13, 2019 - The Gulf Cooperation Council condemned the sabotage operations carried out against four commercial ships near United Arab Emirates’ waters.

GCC Secretary General Abdullatif bin Rashid Al Zayani issued a statement saying this issue is escalating tensions and clashes in the region and threatening people’s interests.

Bahrain is also strongly condemning the sabotage operations against the four ships in the UAE’s Port
Fujairah, describing the measure as a terrorist attack threatening local maritime safety and security. Bahrain supports all measures adopted by the UAE to maintain its security and interests, and fully stands alongside this nation, the statement adds. The international community must live up to its responsibilities in regards to preserving maritime safety and security, and confronting any threats endangering international peace and security.

The sabotage attacks against UAE ships took place hours after Iranian and Lebanese outlets were posting fake news reports of explosions near the UAE port, according to the Associated Press.

The UAE Foreign Ministry issued a statement on Sunday indicating four commercial ships near the waters of this country were the targets of sabotage operations. This incident left no casualties.

Sabotage against commercial ships and the threat of employees’ lives being lost is considered a dangerous development, according to the UAE Foreign Ministry statement. The UAE has not provided more details of this incident and is emphasizing investigations with the cooperation of international authorities are ongoing in this regard.

The Saudi Foreign Ministry issued a statement on Monday indicating two of its oil tankers were also damaged in Sunday’s attack.

On Sunday morning, Fujairah officials were denying reports of explosions in the local port. Media outlets associated to the mullahs’ regime in Iran were citing the Lebanon-based al-Mayadeen media outlet reporting news of explosions targeting seven oil tankers in Port Fujairah.

The UAE Foreign Ministry issued a statement declaring the international community must rise to its responsibility of preventing efforts seeking to damage shipping lines. The UAE government emphasized the sabotage attack threatens global peace and security.