Iran: Fear of war and the regime’s gradual disintegration

Iran: Fear of war and the regime’s gradual disintegration

Chief Commander of IRGC Hossein Salami

Analysis by PMOI/MEK

Iran, May 17, 2019 - Last Sunday, the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps’ (IRGC) newly appointed chief went to the regime’s Majlis (parliament) to reassure the horrified members that there will not be war.

Regardless of future developments, the current situation in Iran shows very well how hollow and vulnerable the “revolutionary” power structure of the theocracy has become.

Dispatching U.S. battleships to the Persian Gulf on the one hand and growing popular discontent and economic misery on the other has created an avalanche of desires for negotiations on both sides of the political aisle inside the Iranian regime.

Naghavi Hosseini, one of Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s minions in the Majlis’ National Security and Foreign Policy Commission, while pretending to have an anti-U.S. stance, alluded to negotiations with the “Great Satan.”

“At the end of the day, we don’t know what approach they want to implement and how they want to solve these paradoxes? Recently, we witnessed them backing off from their past positions and they have even announced that they will forgo past conditions and are ready to negotiate,” he said.

According to the Jomhuri Eslami newspaper, Iran’s ambassador to the United Nations also indicated Tehran’s willingness to negotiate with the U.S.

“Iran’s permanent ambassador the U.N. responded to Trump’s proposal for negotiations saying: ‘The U.S. President needs to first say why he left the negotiating table. What are the guarantees that he doesn’t break his promise again in the future talks with Iran?’”

Heshmatollah Falahatpisheh, chair of the Majlis Security Commission, praised Trump’s recent comments about negotiations and the phone number provided to Switzerland for Iran.

“The U.S. President wants to decrease tensions and to prevent military rhetoric between Iran and America,” he said.

Zahra Saiidy, the spokesperson for the Economy Commission, expressed her fears of the popular protests and warned the government to do its best to diffuse discontent among ordinary Iranians.

Mostafa Kavakebian, another Majlis member, said: “If we don’t want to bow down before bullies, we need to bow before the people. It means God forbid, the people should hear of no more issues such as abuse of power and corruption.”

Majlis members are panicking under domestic and U.S. pressure, showing signs of a desire to negotiate with the U.S., while Khamenei has already said there will not be any war or negotiations with the U.S.

In a meeting with military personnel, he reiterated this position on May 14.

One important point to note is how Iranian officials have backed down from the hardline positions in tandem with the U.S. military buildup and the gradual increase of sanctions.

This has been a pattern throughout the regime’s history, to concede when there are enough resolve and pressure from adversaries.

Ahmad Alamolhoda, Khamenei’s representative in the northeast city of Mashhad, clearly expressed the ruling mullahs’ actual source of fear in his Friday prayers last week.

“These people who are moving into battle formation have done this with people they hope to raise inside of Iran against the [Islamic] revolution,” he said. “They are counting on this [young] generation that is entering the field these days.”

Iran MP admits active role of opposition PMOI/MEK among the public

Iran MP admits active role of opposition PMOI/MEK among the public

Iranian regime Majlis (parliament)

Analysis by PMOI/MEK

Iran: May 15, 2019 – Elias Hazrati, a member of the Iranian regime’s Majlis (parliament), took to the podium in an open session of the parliament on Tuesday to discuss the current crisis that has engulfed the entire regime.

“The system is facing the toughest sanctions’ regime and the most condense economic blockade the country has faced during the past decade,” Hazrati said.

Under the slogan of the “people losing their trust” and “hopeless people”, Hazrati warned regime officials that the status quo will lead to a nationwide uprising.

“We are in the middle of a horrific psychological war. The war has begun. The aim is to destroy the people’s trust in the state,” the Majlis member warned. He said the target of this “psychological war” is creating a wedge between the people and the system.

In another segment of his comments, Hazrati revealed his fears of the increase of social interests and attraction toward the Iranian opposition group People's Mojahedin Organization of Iran (PMOI/MEK) as the opposite to the social hatred and disgust of the people toward the regime.

“The enemy is using all its assets to discredit the state. With fake news and exaggeration tactics, 1,200 PMOI/MEK members are sitting and planning against [paramilitary] Hezbollah [militants], against both the reformists and principalists, the defenders of the state and the extremists and the fanatics. And inside the system, we are promoting this great war without doing anything to counter it,” Hazrati added.

He warned different factions of the regime saying that they don’t have a correct perception of the situation.

“You will realize the gravity of the situation when the people are smashed under the wheels of the problems,” he said, admitting the explosive statues of the society and the regime’s inability to tackle that.

“We don’t have any understanding of the fact that people are being smashed under the wheels of high costs of living, inflation, unemployment, and there is chaos overwhelming the Bazaar and the economy, while we are engaged in our own infightings and pay no attention to the outside reality.”

Iran: The economic free fall and the deadly inflation tsunami

Iran: The economic free fall and the deadly inflation tsunami

The economic free fall and the deadly inflation tsunami

Analysis by PMOI/MEK

May 14, 2019 - On May 4, the state-run newspaper Asr-e Iran wrote about the significant increase in prices of consumer goods.

“Now, we are facing an unrestrained economic instability and fear about the future. Prices are almost unimaginable. It appears that all of it is a horrifying nightmare and will end when you wake up. However, we all know that what is described as a nightmare is the hard truth,” the piece reads in part.

A few days earlier on May Day, Eghtesasd 24, an Iranian state-run website specialized in economic news, wrote about the current economic misery worker families face.

“The inflation that especially in the past two years has bent the back of working-class families isn’t limited to increases in red meat prices. Prices of fruit, vegetables and especially products like onions and potatoes that are the main ingredient of the daily food of working-class families have increased to such an extent that you can safely say that workers and their families are craving for fruits for a long time,” the article reads.

On May 6, state-run Vatan Emrooz newspaper, wrote: “The cost of food is far higher than in other countries. Right now, no more 42,000 rial U.S. currency is dedicated to importing beans and its cost has increased by 100 percent. Special currency for importing butter and meat are also dropped, the government hasn’t presented an alternative and subsidies are not provided for the people either.”

In Iran, U.S. dollars are bought and sold at two rates: the official rate is set by the state and the free market rate that changes based on on-the-ground market conditions.

While the state-set rate for one U.S. dollar is set at 42,000 Iranian rials, the free market price is around 150,000 rials.

The Iranian regime should be providing US dollars at state-set prices for special purposes such as importing raw materials for factories or essential consumer goods and thus effectively controlling inflation and domestic prices.

However, what happens, in reality, is an outrageous story of blatant corruption, nepotism, and kleptocracy where US dollars at state-set prices are handed out to the well-connected elite who make huge profits at the expense of ordinary Iranians.

On May 6, the Tabnak website published an article titled, “Brokers profited 200 thousand billion tomans from ‘Jahangiri’s currency’.” A toman is equal to 10 rials.

Eshaq Jahangiri, Iran’s First Vice President, famously set and announced the current official exchange rate for the U.S. dollar, so, in current Persian parlance, “Jahangiri’s currency” means USDs at the 42,000 rial rate.

Considering that calculated with the free market rate, 200 thousand billion tomans roughly equal more than $13 billion.

Tabnak writes: “In [the Persian] year 2018-2019, $20 billion have been given to different institutions at the [state-set] rate of 42,000 rials. If you calculate the price at the free market rate, the difference is about 200 thousand billion tomans. That’s while the damage of last month’s huge flood has been calculated at 35 thousand billion tomans.”

Keyhan newspaper, the mouthpiece of Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s, writes: “A few weeks after the JCPOA was implemented, Mohammad Bagher Nobakht [then-spokesperson for the Iranian government] announced that $100 billion Iranian frozen money has been released. Although, government officials later and in a questionable move very much decreased the amount of this money, the main question remains about where this huge amount has been spent that no government official has said anything about it?”

In another admission about the blatant corruption in the Islamic Republic and how just a tiny portion of Iran’s none-oil export revenue is returned to the country, state-run news agency ISNA wrote a damning report on March 4.

“From the $40 billion of exports that the country had in the 11 months of this year, only $8 billion returned to the country.”

Meanwhile, prices of the most basic food products are skyrocketing.

The IRNA news agency reported on May 1 that after a 459.5 percent increase in its prices, onions are the record holder among food products.

AP: U.S. official says initial assessment shows Iran’s role in oil tanker attack

AP: U.S. official says initial assessment shows Iran’s role in oil tanker attack

Fingers are pointing at Iran and Iran-backed proxies in the recent attack targeting four oil tankers off the UAE coast

Analysis by PMOI/MEK

May 14, 2019 - The Associated Press is reporting a U.S. official speaking on the condition of anonymity says initial assessments by an American military team shows Iran’s regime and/or Tehran-backed proxy forces used explosives to create holes in four oil tankers off the coast of the United Arab Emirates.

Each oil tanker has a hole about 1.5 to three meters wide at water or sub-water level. The American team has reached a conclusion that the holes were caused by explosives.

The UAE has asked for U.S. assistance in investigating this case of sabotage, according to AP. [Persian] Gulf officials are describing this development as a sabotage attack.

The U.S. has warned ships that Iran or its proxy forces could target shipping lines in this area and Washington has dispatched bombers, warplanes, and warships to the region.

CBS is also citing U.S. investigators placing the blame for this attack on the Iranian regime or Tehran-backed proxy groups. Four ships belonging to U.S. allies were targeted off the coast of the United Arab Emirates.

AP has also reported that U.S. President Donald Trump on Monday warned Iran that any measures resembling an attack will receive a strong response. When asked about the sabotage attacks, Trump said, “We’ll see what happens with Iran. If they do anything it will be a very bad mistake. I’m hearing little stories about Iran. If they do anything, they will suffer greatly. We’ll see what happens… We'll see what happens. It's going to be a bad problem for Iran if something happens. They're not going to be happy... They know what I mean."

It is worth noting that Iran’s Revolutionary Guards (IRGC), known to fund, arm and train proxy forces across the region, has been designated by the U.S. State Department as a “Foreign Terrorist Organization” (FTO).

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The Gulf Cooperation Council condemned the sabotage operations carried out against four commercial ships near United Arab Emirates’ waters.

GCC Secretary-General Abdullatif bin Rashid Al Zayani issued a statement saying this issue is escalating tensions and clashes in the region and threatening people’s interests.

Bahrain is also strongly condemning the sabotage operations against the four ships in the UAE’s Port

Fujairah, describing the measure as a terrorist attack threatening local maritime safety and security. Bahrain supports all measures adopted by the UAE to maintain its security and interests, and fully stands alongside this nation, the statement adds. The international community must live up to its responsibilities in regards to preserving maritime safety and security and confronting any threats endangering international peace and security.

The sabotage attacks against UAE ships took place hours after Iranian and Lebanese outlets were posting fake news reports of explosions near the UAE port, according to the Associated Press.

The UAE Foreign Ministry issued a statement on Sunday indicating four commercial ships near the waters of this country were the targets of sabotage operations. This incident left no casualties.

Sabotage against commercial ships and the threat of employees’ lives being lost is considered a dangerous development, according to the UAE Foreign Ministry statement. The UAE has not provided more details of this incident and is emphasizing investigations with the cooperation of international authorities are ongoing in this regard.

The Saudi Foreign Ministry issued a statement on Monday indicating two of its oil tankers were also damaged in Sunday’s attack.

On Sunday morning, Fujairah officials were denying reports of explosions in the local port. Media outlets associated with the mullahs’ regime in Iran were citing the Lebanon-based al-Mayadeen media outlet reporting news of explosions targeting seven oil tankers in Port Fujairah.

The UAE Foreign Ministry issued a statement declaring the international community must rise to its responsibility of preventing efforts seeking to damage shipping lines. The UAE government emphasized the sabotage attack threatens global peace and security.

GCC, Bahrain condemn sabotage attacks on commercial ships in the UAE

GCC, Bahrain condemn sabotage attacks on commercial ships in the UAE

Tensions are building up in the region and fingers are pointing at the regime in Iran

Reported by PMOI/MEK

UAE, May 13, 2019 - The Gulf Cooperation Council condemned the sabotage operations carried out against four commercial ships near United Arab Emirates’ waters.

GCC Secretary General Abdullatif bin Rashid Al Zayani issued a statement saying this issue is escalating tensions and clashes in the region and threatening people’s interests.

Bahrain is also strongly condemning the sabotage operations against the four ships in the UAE’s Port
Fujairah, describing the measure as a terrorist attack threatening local maritime safety and security. Bahrain supports all measures adopted by the UAE to maintain its security and interests, and fully stands alongside this nation, the statement adds. The international community must live up to its responsibilities in regards to preserving maritime safety and security, and confronting any threats endangering international peace and security.

The sabotage attacks against UAE ships took place hours after Iranian and Lebanese outlets were posting fake news reports of explosions near the UAE port, according to the Associated Press.

The UAE Foreign Ministry issued a statement on Sunday indicating four commercial ships near the waters of this country were the targets of sabotage operations. This incident left no casualties.

Sabotage against commercial ships and the threat of employees’ lives being lost is considered a dangerous development, according to the UAE Foreign Ministry statement. The UAE has not provided more details of this incident and is emphasizing investigations with the cooperation of international authorities are ongoing in this regard.

The Saudi Foreign Ministry issued a statement on Monday indicating two of its oil tankers were also damaged in Sunday’s attack.

On Sunday morning, Fujairah officials were denying reports of explosions in the local port. Media outlets associated to the mullahs’ regime in Iran were citing the Lebanon-based al-Mayadeen media outlet reporting news of explosions targeting seven oil tankers in Port Fujairah.

The UAE Foreign Ministry issued a statement declaring the international community must rise to its responsibility of preventing efforts seeking to damage shipping lines. The UAE government emphasized the sabotage attack threatens global peace and security.

Fear and panic among Iranian officials after the nuclear suicide

Fear and panic among Iranian officials after the nuclear suicide

Iranian regime President Hassan Rouhani

Analysis by PMOI/MEK

May 11, 2019 - Iran’s new approach to the entire nuclear dilemma, as described by Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi of being a step by step exit from the nuclear deal – commonly known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) – has left even some of the regime’s own elements and pundits gravely concerned.

In an interview with irdiplomacy.ir, a state-run news and analysis website, Ali Bigdeli, a political pundit close to regime President Hassan Rouhani’s so-called “moderate” faction, describes how the U.S. has created a regional coalition and warns about steps that could put Europe on the side of America.

“If the European Union, especially important European countries such as Germany, France, and the United Kingdom are considered in the same camp, everything, even military tensions, are possible. As I said before, chances are that our dossier in the United Nations Security Council will be put under Chapter 7 of the UN Charter.”

“Iran isn’t under normal political, diplomatic, economic, and even security/military conditions,” he said. “Unfortunately, every day we put additional limitations on the country and by implementing these propaganda policies we are going to entrap the country with further sanctions every day which will be very hard to remove in the future.”

Considering the crises facing Tehran, he said, “To surpass the country’s [current problems] we have no other way than to negotiate.”

The Fararu website, also close to Rouhani faction, voiced concerns over the International Atomic Energy Agency’s (IAEA) upcoming report after Iran announced it won’t sell its surplus enriched uranium and heavy water. “After stopping portion of Iran’s obligations, all eyes are on the agency’s next report about Iran’s compliance. Will the new report of IAEA Director General Yukiya Amano announce that Iran’s enriched uranium and heavy water reserves have exceeded the permitted levels of the JCPOA?”

Mohsen Jalilvand, a political pundit close to Rouhani’s faction, reiterates that Iran’s problem is with the U.S. and not Europe. “I don’t know why Rouhani wrote letters to Europe, Russia, and China?”

The nuclear deal between the 5+1 countries and Iran was reached under the Obama administration in 2015.

He then expressed concerns about Iran’s new approach. “Iran exiting the JCPOA has consequences of which the most important is that UN Security Council resolutions will be implemented. Keep in mind that these resolutions have not been canceled under the JCPOA, they were merely suspended. With Iran exiting the JCPOA, these resolutions will be implemented again and international sanctions will return. This situation can draw closer the possibility of war.”

Mehdi Motaharnia, a university professor and political pundit, mocked Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei personally without naming him. “In his election campaign, [U.S. President] Donald Trump promised to tear apart the JCPOA. Back then, [Iranian] officials said that if the U.S. tears the JCPOA apart, we are going to burn it. I believe that ever since Iran has entered a war of prestige and saving face with the U.S… What Mr. Rouhani and the Supreme National Security Council announced is along the same line,” he added.

“Iran can respond to these provocations and continue the war of prestige and facesaving, but we should consider where our path eventually lead us to? Do we follow the ‘standing with clenched fists’ scenario or the ‘standing with the white flag’ one?” he asked.

He then gloomily warned that “any of these scenarios will have high costs.”

On the opposite side, elements of Khamenei’s faction express satisfaction with this new stance but consider it not enough.

Mehdi Mottahari, close to intelligence circles of Khamenei’s faction, writes on Twitter: “Today, something important happened. Now, the U.S. and Europe know that the short-term cost of their current path can be the JCPOA’s full disintegration. The first steps could be made stronger, but this isn’t bad either. Now, it is vital that the song of negotiating with the U.S. isn’t sung again and the next steps are taken stronger.”

Rouhani camp’s concerns about the new approach by the ruling theocracy in Iran towards the Iranian nuclear dilemma is very well grounded.

If Iran stops complying with JCPOA provisions, even European countries so keen on lucrative business with Iran see no other option but to close in on the U.S. approach, rendering even further international isolation and sanctions for Tehran.

The Islamic Republic’s calculation that threats and a show of force and determination will help to further drive a so-much-sought wedge between the U.S. and its European allies is misplaced. However, maybe the sanctions have already cut to the bone of the corrupt ruling mullahs in Tehran and they see no other way than gradual escalation.

Furthermore, if the IAEA reports Iran in violation of the JCPOA and Iran is referred to the UN Security Council under Chapter 7, the mullahs will suffer under grave consequences.

That is why Heshmatollah Falahatpisheh, chair of the Iranian Majlis (parliament) Foreign Relations and Security Commission, had words of warnings. “Iran shouldn’t announce its exit from any treaty. That is what the U.S. is seeking… As one possible solution, we should negotiate with the IAEA and JCPOA members to enrich uranium at 20 percent and more.”

Rouhani’s minions are not the only regime figures worried about the current situation. Khamenei’s thugs, whose fraudulent cries of standing firm has rendered even the skies deaf, also cannot hide their concerns at times.

“It is possible that every minute a European country claims the JCPOA has been violated and through the snapback process, all of the previous [UN Security Council] resolutions are restored, triggering a return of United Nations sanctions,” one Khamenei pundit warns

All the while Khamenei had previously reassured his followers, “There won’t be war.”  Even he has put the regime’s security forces on alert.

European JCPOA, a silver lining or a fata morgana

European JCPOA, a silver lining or a fata morgana

The JCPOA on the nuclear program

Analysis by PMOI/MEK

Iran, May 10, 2019 - The European financial mechanism, or INSTEX, is a silver lining on the horizon or just false hopes for a mirage? This is the very question that not only the Iranian regime’s pundits and analysts haven’t been able to answer yet, but also officials in Iran’s Foreign Ministry and elsewhere are still not sure how to answer the problem.

On May 7, Iranian state-run television broadcast a program attempting to tackle this dilemma.

“After the U.S. exited the JCPOA, the Europeans were supposed to provide for Iran’s interests under the JCPOA framework. However, after one year, Europeans did not want or could not cover those interests. Europe promise was downgraded to a limited and narrow channel that hasn’t been made operational until now. According to Mr. Zarif [Iran’s foreign minister], Europe has been respecting only one percent of its obligations in real terms. [Iranian President Hassan] Rouhani also warned a few days ago that Iran’s patience is limited,” Iran’s official channel one television said.

The program than quotes Federica Mogherini, High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, expressing her views in this regard. “We are obliged to fully respect all the obligations that are provided by the JCPOA and this must mean for the Iranians to respect all their nuclear obligations.”

The regime’s state-TV program continues:

“They forced foreign companies to leave Iran and by violating the JCPOA, they did everything in their power: from [U.S. secretary of state] Pompeo’s 12 conditions... to labeling the Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) as a terrorist and promising to zero our oil sales. Not to mention that alongside an economic war, the Americans are also waging a full-fledged media war, too.”

The program then quotes German Foreign Minister Heiko Maas’ perspective. “We’ve made it clear to Iran that we don’t have the capability to cover the losses of European companies who are hit by losses in their business with Iran because of the threat of U.S. sanctions,” he said.

The program commentator is seen saying, “… we are the point where the U.S. left the JCPOA and started violating its obligations. This is the very point where Iran’s patience runs thin.”

The Iranian official Channel One television ends the program by quoting a warning from Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi. “Unfortunately, I have to say that the JCPOA is very close to its end and it is unfortunate if it ends. However, its end won’t be on Iran.”

While the language and view of Iran’s main television channel about Europe and its mechanism are pessimistic, Zarif’s interview with Russia’s Sputnik was republished in Iranian media.

“As long as Europe stays committed to the nuclear deal, Iran will comply with it. The Iranian version of Europe’s INSTEX is a company called SATMA. We have informed Europe about the launching of this company. We may implement a similar mechanism to INSTEX with other stakeholder countries, including Russia and Turkey.”

Iran’s Mehr news agency mocks Zarif’s rhetoric of a none-European INSTEX as a “bitter joke.”

“The European INSTEX is still limited to talk and registration and is far from implementation. Nonetheless, officials and Zarif talk about a none-European INSTEX. This means [further] complicating the economic situation,” the piece reads.

Tasnim news agency, affiliated to the IRGC Quds force quotes an economic official saying, “The main problem is that as long as a bank or financial institution isn’t ready to cooperate with INSTEX, it won’t be able to do anything meaningful.”

“Unfortunately, the sanctions have resulted in a situation that no bank is ready to do business with Iran,” he adds.

“Now, three months after INSTEX was established, it appears that Iran and Iranian businessmen have got ‘nothing’ and INSTEX has not been able to open a route for trading between Iran and Europe,” the reports reads in the finale.

While deciding whether INSTEX is a silver lining for the mullahcracy in Iran or a fata morgana appears to be a highly political and biased position, it is clear until now that aside from talk and grandiose stances, Europe’s financial mechanism hasn’t done much to help the corrupt ruling elite in Tehran.